We can now say goodbye to another turbulent real estate year. As we look at all the ups and downs, we ended the year in about the same spot that we started. Inventories are down, buyer’s ability to move homes is limited with higher rates and the two remain in relative balance. It kind of makes sense, since most sellers are buyers too.

As I look into my crystal ball for 2024, I see a very different year unfolding ahead of us. Fixed rates started to come down in December, and for some well-qualified buyers, rates are already below 5%. We should see the Bank of Canada start to reduce their rates by the end of May. We may even get a surprise announcement in March if the Q4 2023 GDP numbers come in poorly and we are officially in a recession. We’ll see those come out in early February.

The reality of our overall market is that there are many more people than houses. We’ve added 1 million new residents in Ontario in the last two years. As a whole the housing starts in Ontario have gone down in the last two years too. We should be building more homes for the record new residents and we are building less.

Many people want to make a move. Once interest rates start to come down consistently below 5%, we’ll see the sales volumes start to increase. When we get closer to 4%, investors will start to return as well. I expect a slower spring market than normal and then a general warming up through the end of the year.

If you’re thinking of making a move in 2024, let’s have a chat. Now’s the time to set your plan so that you can find your new home at the best possible time for your situation.

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